Equilibria in campaign spending games theory and data

Erikson and Robert S. Erikson and Thomas R. Palfrey and Thomas R. This paper presents a formal game-theoretic model to explain the simultaneity problem that has made it di cult to obtain unbiased estimates of the e ects of both incumbent and challenger spending in U.

House elections. The model predicts a particular form of correlation between the expected closeness of the race and the level of spending by both candidates, which implies that the simultaneity problem should not be present in close races, and should be progressively more severe in range of safe races that are empirically observed.

This is con rmed by comparing simple OLS regression of races that are expected to be close with races that are expected not to be close, using House incumbent races spanning two decades. The theory also implies that inclusion of a variable controlling for total spending should successfully produce reliable estimates using OLS.

My bibliography Save this paper. Palfrey, Thomas R. Registered: Thomas R. This paper presents a formal game-theoretic model to explain the simultaneity problem that has made it difficult to obtain unbiased estimates of the effects of both incumbent and challenger spending in U.

House elections. The model predicts a particular form of correlation between the expected closeness of the race and the level of spending by both candidates, which implies that the simultaneity problem should not be present in close races, and should be progressively more severe in range of safe races that are empirically observed.

This is confirmed by comparing simple OLS regression of races that are expected to be close with races that are expected not to be close, using House incumbent races spanning two decades.

The theory also implies that inclusion of a variable controlling for total spending should successfully produce reliable estimates using OLS. This is confirmed. Erikson, Robert S. Handle: RePEc:clt:sswopa as. Statistics Access and download statistics. Corrections All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. Louis Fed. Help us Corrections Found an error or omission? RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.